Ironman Kona 2010 — The Ladies

Seems that my picks for the men’s side of the Ironman World Championships in Kona are not very controversial from the comments. I thought picking Potts for a top three may have been a little more out on the edge, but apparently not. Faris Al-Sultan is telling everyone he is not in top form, but I really think he is sandbagging. Either way, I think a pretty well established athlete is going to win the men’s race.

But I want to think the women’s side will be more of a race than last year. Chrissie Wellington not only dominated the field last year, but she set the new course record for the women’s race. She also owns the World Record in the Ironman for women. On the other side of the pond, like Andy Potts she is an accomplished ITU athlete — she was the 2008 World Champion.

She crashed on a training ride in January and broke a couple of bones in her arm/hand. But it didn’t seem to slow her down at all. She broke the World Record in July at Roth, beating the previous record by over 12 minutes, which at the pro level is a lifetime. She followed that race up with a 1st place finish at Timberman. She hasn’t gotten anything but 1st at a race since Timberman 2009. As a matter of fact, of the last eight races she has entered, she has won seven. She does seem unbeatable.

I do think there is little probability for anyone to beat her at Kona this year, but if someone CAN do it, here are my picks:

Mirinda Carfrae
Mirinda is an Australian triathlete who ran her first marathon during the 2009 Ironman World Championships and place 2nd. She broke the course record for the marathon at that race that was set by — wait for it — Chrissie Wellington. Mirinda was the 2005 ITU Long Course World Champion and the Ironman 70.3 World Champion in 2007. Mirinda is wicked fast and I think one of the easier pro’s to look at. If she pulls down her bike split (in 2009 her bike was 5:14 compared to Chrissie’s 4:52), she can win it all.

Rebekah Keat
I love Rebekah Keat. She is one fast chick and she has a long resume of race wins. It was Rebekah that provided a CO2 cartridge to Wellington when Chrissie flatted during a race, so why wouldn’t you root for her? She is the ultimate sportsman, and just a fine human being if I do say so myself. She needs to pull her bike split down to be in contention — she posted a 5:15 last year. According to the records, she also had a 6:00 T2 time, which I wonder if that was due to a drafting penalty or injury. I don’t know the answer to that. She jsut won IM Louisville, so she is going into Kona in top shape. I think if Carfrae doesn’t challenge Wellington, I am betting Keat does.

The Bottom Line
I think Wellington is going to take the title again, but in my opinion, Carfrae and Keat have the best chances of beating her. I am hopeful that all three have an amazing day so that we can see who the fastest truly is. I love the Women’s race and the celebration of pure sport that it is. I will be in Hawaii the week after the race and I am really disappointed in that fact. I would have loved to have been there for the second year in a row to spectate and take in the pure awesomeness that is the race.

About the Author

I have been participating in running and triathlons for 10 years and love the feeling that training provides. You may not agree with me, but you know you just can't look away...